Fifty-two short weeks ago, I started my journey with the Crisis Ready® Institute with a post titled: Is the COVID-19 end in sight? A look at where we are three weeks in, and what’s needed to get “back to normal”.
With a year behind us and so many experiences under each of our belts, I thought it worth taking some time to look at what I said back then and see how well my statements and advice have aged.
Was “the COVID-19 end in sight”?
Not so much. I am not sure there will ever be an “end” for COVID-19. If we are lucky, it will fade into a part of our every-day lives, similarly to Influenza and the Common Cold. If we are unlucky, COVID-19 will play a similar role to Tuberculosis, Polio, and Measles during the early 20th Century – continuing to extort a price in human suffering and lives until science can catch up.
“Supply chains for food and critical goods (outside of personal protective equipment {PPE}) are stabilizing.”
I was pretty accurate with this statement. Supply chains have stabilized, but the stores, restaurants, and businesses that are the endpoints for the supply chains have been crushed by the economic consequences of lockdowns and other associated protective measures. A survey published by the U.S. Census Bureau in December 2020 showed that 53% of small business owners did not expect to return to pre-COVID operations for a least six months. The UN estimates that COVID has cost global workers more than $3.7 Trillion in lost earnings.
There are serious discussions that the “cure” may have been worse than the disease in this case. From a purely public health point of view, I disagree. From a more holistic view, considering social, economic, political, mental and emotional health angles, I’m not sure.
“Terminology is changing to help you better protect yourself.”
It was a valiant effort, but “Social Distancing” is still the term of choice used to describe increasing the physical distance between individuals to decrease the likelihood of cross-contamination with respiratory droplets. I will revisit the “6-foot” question later in this post.
Humans are social creatures. We are experiencing the consequences of disrupting our social structures and limiting interpersonal interaction. Several people whom I have a lot of personal respect for are concerned that these consequences will include a marked increase in anti-social and violent behaviors. The risk is in these bahaviors being used as coping mechanisms for dealing with the stress and strain of the overwhelm of daily life. In other words, our effort to apply physical distancing as a protective measure has resulted in social distancing that will have ongoing consequences for the predictable future.
It remains true that “Fear will not help anything”.
While the COVID-19 crisis has continued much longer than anybody hoped, and the loss of life has reached numbing levels, we cannot allow fear to drive how we continue to live our lives. Science has demonstrated how we can protect ourselves and others from SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. We are learning how to better treat this disease. We have made immense progress in the development and delivery of multiple types of vaccines. To steal the catchphrase, we all need to Keep Calm and Carry On.
“Keep yourself healthy.”
This one continues to hold true. Where I was focused on physical health and chronic illness when I made my initial statement, this concept needs to be applied to mental and emotional health as well.
We continue to be under extreme levels of stress as individuals, communities, and societies. As that stress becomes strain – and our coping methods begin to crack – it falls on us to act as communities and support each other. Recognize when your friends, peers, and neighbors are asking for help. Or when their behavior does the asking for them. There are resources available to provide that help. Don’t try to be ‘tough’ and “power through” this mess. Support is out there. Take advantage of it. Choosing to do so makes you stronger, not weaker.
“Do not forget to unplug and try to relax.”
I have to admit that I have failed spectacularly at this one. Since transitioning to a Work from Anywhere (WFA) mindset, I find myself engaged at all hours, any time the muse strikes. This has resulted in several discussions with my family about how I no longer have a daily three-hour commute, but I seem to be working longer hours than before the Pandemic.
Burn-out is real. There are physical and psychological signs and symptoms:
- Chronic fatigue: A feeling of a lack of energy or tiredness, progressing to feeling physically and emotionally exhausted.
- Insomnia: Despite feeling tired, you have difficulties falling or staying asleep.
- Forgetfulness / Impaired Concentration & Attention: A lack of focus and a loss of productivity.
- Increased illness: As you wear down, your immune system suffers. You become more vulnerable to infections and other immune-related problems.
- Loss of Appetite: Not in a good way.
- Anxiety: Tension, worry, and edginess increase.
- Depression: Ranging from mild feelings of sadness to guilt and worthlessness as your productivity decreases.
- Anger: Presenting as interpersonal tension and irritability, and evolving to an increased potential for angry outbursts and serious arguments.
“Along the same lines, give yourself time to detox from COVID-19.”
This is another element that I was pretty accurate with. Media coverage of the Pandemic has changed since January 2021. Even with those changes, the Pandemic is still everywhere in our infotainment ecosystem. My advice is to unplug for one day each week. Do not consume any media that has anything to do with the Pandemic, and try to look at what else is going on in the world around you.
“If possible, spend time with your family.”
I’ll give myself a 50% on this one. Some families are beginning to experience stress and strain from being isolated together. Make sure that you have some together time but protect some alone time as well.
“Think of the gas money you are saving!”
In the U.S., we are still saving some money on gas. Still, mobility on a national scale is edging back toward pre-COVID levels. The March 23, 2021, COVID-19 Community Mobility Report from Google shows a mixed bag of mobility trends, with decreases in Retail & Recreation, Grocery & Pharmacy, Transit Stations, and Workplaces with increases in Parks and Residential mobility statistics.
“Invest in yourself.”
Another point that still holds true. There is opportunity in any crisis, even this one. Those opportunities can be engaged for personal and professional development – learning a new skill, finishing a degree or certificate, starting a new blog. Take some time and make the investment – be genuinely resilient and come out of this disruption better than you were when it began.
“Wash your hands.”
Wash your hands. Wash your hands. Wash your hands. Enough said.
“Physical distancing—six feet is the minimum target.”
And here’s one of the newer controversies of the COVID-19 response. New guidance from the CDC reflects that the “six feet” may actually be three. Other research shows that respiratory droplets can travel as far as 27-30 feet under certain conditions. Either way, physical distancing works – the farther away you are from a person who is shedding the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the better. While I’ll let more intelligent people than me work out the exact distances involved, I do calmly request that you respect my (and others’) sense of self-preservation if I / they feel you are standing too close and either step back, or ask you to do so.
“Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).”
PPE works as it is designed to. We STILL have not addressed the crisis communications failures from early in the Pandemic. Many people still do not understand that cloth and surgical procedure masks do not protect you from other people. They protect other people from you.
N-95’s, N-100’s, Powered Air Purifying Respirators (PAPRs), and Self-Contained Breathing Apparatuses (SCBA) all provide additional protection for the wearer, but only if they are correctly fitted and worn.
“The pandemic’s end-date depends on all of our choices, including yours.”
Of all the things that I wrote in my April 3, 2020 post, this remains the most applicable and vital. The government is not going to save us from this crisis. The only way that the COVID-19 Pandemic will be managed in any way that is even close to being considered adequate, is if every individual chooses to protect themselves and respect other people’s choices.
Regardless of masks and distancing, there are two other core protective behaviors have been shown to be highly effective. These two simple things can significantly decrease your chances of catching or spreading COVID-19, along with several other illnesses as well. These two core protective behaviors are:
- Wash your hands with soap and warm water. Frequently.
- If you are sick or even think that you are sick, stay home. Do not share.
I will close with the same line that I used 52 weeks ago.
There have been pandemics in the past. There will be pandemics in the future. The question is: how will you deal with the Pandemic in the present?
Aaron Marks is a Senior Principal with Dynamis, Inc. where he supports clients across the domestic National and Homeland Security communities and international public safety enterprise. He provides operational and subject matter expertise in intelligence analysis and targeting, disaster preparedness, crisis and incident management, and continuity of operations for healthcare related concerns. Aaron has provided in-depth review, assessment, and analysis for technology, policy, and operational programs impacting all levels of government. He is a recognized authority on the application of nontraditional techniques and methodologies to meet the unique requirements of training, evaluation, and analytic games and exercise for the National and Homeland Security communities.
Prior to joining Dynamis, Aaron was the Director of Operations for a commercial ambulance and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) provider in western New York State where he participated in the integration of commercial EMS and medical transportation resources into the local Trauma System. During his 30-year career Aaron has worked in almost every aspect of EMS except fleet services. This includes experience in Hazardous Materials and Tactical Medicine, provision of prehospital care in urban, suburban, rural, and frontier environments, and acting as a team leader for both ground and aeromedical Critical Care Transport Teams.
Aaron is a Master Exercise Practitioner and received a B.A. in Psychology from Texas Tech University in Lubbock, Texas and a master’s degree in Public Administration with a focus in Emergency Management from Jacksonville State University in Jacksonville, Alabama. He is also a Nationally Registered Paramedic and currently practices as an Assistant Chief with the Amissville Volunteer Fire and Rescue Department, Amissville Virginia.
